Welcome to Volume #11 of our 2018 Bowman Draft Base Auto Pricing Ladder. This report breaks down all of the sales data up through May 31st, 2019. I mentioned in Volume #7 that this product is shaping up to be one of the strongest releases in a LONG time…and I continue to be proven correct. Seriously, this is quite impressive… here we are ~6 months after release and the overall average auto price is on par with OPENING WEEK prices. That is mind-blowing.
Here is the VIDEO REVIEW of this weeks ladder:
[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbTLOLYuu7Y[/embedyt]
This week we saw overall average auto prices decline by 11%…. but volume continues to be impressive. Now, don’t get me wrong, MOST of this incredible movement has to do with player performances. But don’t underestimate the timing of this release. I believe it probably hit at the absolute perfect time in this crazy hobby bull market. It’s the perfect storm for this product and it has been a blast to track
Over the next few releases we will start see a shift toward graded cards. Usually about 3-4 months after release the good base auto’s have been graded and have started hitting eBay. I’ll slowing start factoring in BGS / PSA prices over the coming months. But for today, I wanted to give you a quick reference chart for the current multiples with graded cards. This will adjust to the market supply over the next few months, but as of TODAY…. here is what you can expect to receive for a 2018 Bowman Draft graded card.
Use this as a buying guide… but realize is only to help give you a reference. 🙂
I’m really excited….because this week I have introduced something COMPLETELY NEW to our pricing ladders. This is something I’m calling the HOT METER. I’ve spent hours trying to come up with a formula or strategy that would be more of a leading indicator VS a historic indicator. This will likely be tweaked over the coming months… but I have something that I finally feel good about.
I’ve come up with a calculation that scores the recent trend in volume (compared to the previous weeks)….and also the trend in price changes (compared to the previous weeks) and comes up with a HOT METER score. The weighting balances out the value of volume and pricing so that you get a better sense of how the market might be viewing the player. More specifically, because volume trends are SO important…this helps you get ahead of a potentially hot player and see where investors might be directing their attention.
Again, use this as another tool to help you identify which players might be the best investments for you to consider. This will be updated each report and will obviously be a very fluid list.
If you are curious about last year’s Bowman Draft Ladder — Check out the 10+ releases of the 2017 Bowman Draft Ladders
And as always, jump into the FORUMS to discuss this in-depth.
The 🔥🔥 HOT METER 🔥🔥 5 This week
Here are the 5 players who had the highest HOT METER score this week.
- Shane McClanahan (44) | Rays | HOT METER SCORE: 19.22 | $6.92 | -5% | . eBay Autos —> HERE
- Logan Gilbert (22) | Mariners | HOT METER SCORE: 16.29 | $13.98 | +63% | . eBay Autos —> HERE
- Nick Madrigal (10) | White Sox | HOT METER SCORE: 16.01 | $39.63 | +6% | . eBay Autos —> HERE
- Josh Stowers (28) | Mariners | HOT METER SCORE: 15.17 | $11.04 | +31% | . eBay Autos —> HERE
- Luken Baker (35) | Cardinals | HOT METER SCORE: 12.91 | $9.69 | +9% | . eBay Autos —> HERE
If you want the FULL LIST for the HOT METER…. head to the FORUM POST HERE!
2018 Bowman Draft Auto Pricing
Report for auctions ending through May 31st, 2019
Overall Average Base Chrome Prospect Sales Price = $31.41 (-17%)
Volume this week: UP 10%
#1 – Nolan Gorman
Average Base Auto Sold Price = $189.70
Relative Price % Change = +2%
Sales Volume Analysis = A-
Last Week Rank = 1
eBay: CLICK HERE to see his AUTO’S ending now.
#2: Jarred Kelenic
Average Base Auto Sold Price = $142.10
Relative Price % Change = +29%
Sales Volume Analysis = A+
Last Week Rank = 2
eBay: CLICK HERE to see his AUTO’S ending now.
#3 – Casey Mize
Average Base Auto Sold Price = $94.19
Relative Price % Change = +20%
Sales Volume Analysis = B-
Last Week Rank = 3
eBay: CLICK HERE to see his AUTO’S ending now.
#4 – Nico Hoerner
Average Base Auto Sold Price = $70.57
Relative Price % Change = +25%
Sales Volume Analysis = B-
Last Week Rank = 5
eBay: CLICK HERE to see his AUTO’S ending now.
#5 – Triston Casas
Average Base Auto Sold Price = $61.88
Relative Price % Change = +32%
Sales Volume Analysis = F
Last Week Rank = 4
eBay: CLICK HERE to see his AUTO’S ending now.
#6: Jonathan India
Average Base Auto Sold Price = $60.00
Relative Price % Change = +18%
Sales Volume Analysis = F
Last Week Rank = 9
eBay: CLICK HERE to see his AUTO’S ending now.
#7 – Jordan Groshans
Average Base Auto Sold Price = $60.23
Relative Price % Change = +15%
Sales Volume Analysis = F
Last Week Rank = 6
eBay: CLICK HERE to see his AUTO’S ending now.
#8 – Alec Bohm
Average Base Auto Sold Price = $57.46
Relative Price % Change = +25%
Sales Volume Analysis = B+
Last Week Rank = 7
eBay: CLICK HERE to see his AUTO’S ending now.
#9: Grant Lavigne
Average Base Auto Sold Price = $55.50
Relative Price % Change = +64%
Sales Volume Analysis = D
Last Week Rank = 10
eBay: CLICK HERE to see his AUTO’S ending now.
#10 – Nick Madrigal
Average Base Auto Sold Price = $39.63
Relative Price % Change = +6%
Sales Volume Analysis = B+
Last Week Rank = 8
eBay: CLICK HERE to see his AUTO’s ending now.
Dropped out of Top Ten: None!
INTERESTING WEEKLY CHARTS
Here are a few charts that might be presenting an opportunity. They stuck out to me amongst all of the data from the week.
#1 – Jake McCarthy
Average Base Auto Sold Price = $10.16
Relative Price % Change = 109%
Sales Volume Analysis = B-
eBay: CLICK HERE to see his AUTO’S ending now.
Note: Jake moved up 27 spots to #33 on the list!!
#2 – Ryan Jeffers
Average Base Auto Sold Price = $11.98
Relative Price % Change = +42%
Sales Volume Analysis = C
eBay: CLICK HERE to see his AUTO’S ending now.
Note: Ryan moved up 16 spots to #26 on the list!!
TOP TEAMS (by Avg Auto Sales)
Looking for some help as you enter breaks? Here are the TOP TEAMS by average auto price and weighted with the QTY of players for each team.
Find Bowman Draft Breaks >>>>> ENDING RIGHT HERE <<<<<
Overall Ranking
Here are the OVERALL pricing for all rookies.
Current Pricing for 2018 Bowman Draft Jumbo / Super Jumbo Boxes: RIGHT HERE
Criteria
We run reports on all prospects’ Bowman Draft BASE AUTO sales for a given period. We exclude any variation, auto, insert, graded, or memorabilia prices to make sure you are getting a good representation of the actual base auto pricing. We use Base Auto prices as a baseline because they are considered by many to be the de facto standard for “base” prospect cards for MLB players. We also do our best to remove the countless MISLABELED listings for players, but there is always a chance a random auction can slightly skew the #’s. We’ll keep a close eye.
**NOTE**
Last week we added a new component to the pricing… RELATIVE % change. Instead of just giving you the raw % change week over week, we are factoring in the OVERALL price change for Average Auto prices. This is intended to give you a more realistic picture to how a player is performing against the rest of the field. This also helps remove some of general market pullback that occurs with product releases.
