The Curious Case of 2018 Topps Chrome || ROI || Comparison to Bowman?

Historically Topps Chrome is like that friend who calls once a year, wants to “hang out more”, and then disappears two weeks later. This is that product that is outstanding for a week, decent for two weeks, and forgettable after about a month. Outside of the top 2-3 RC’s each year, folks typically don’t give Topps Chrome much of their attention…. Or do they?

The thought above is the general idea with Topps Chrome…for numerous reasons…the least of which are NO “1st card” and recycled rookies. Yes, many would consider Topps Chrome to be the “True RC” card for most players and because of that there is an foundational appeal. But…. It’s widely considered a secondary product to the likes of Bowman/Bowman Chrome/Heritage/and event Topps S1/S2. I approach TC with this mindset every year.

But before we dive into our ROI analysis and thoughts of this years product, let me show you a quick chart.

I broke down the Top 2 players, avg RC auto, & master set prices for Bowman/Bowman Chrome/Topps Chrome over the last two years. I averaged out prices over the last 12 months and standardized auto’s on BGS 9.5 graded cards. The results are above.

What product is #1? #2?

Well you’d be correct if you guess Bowman/Bowman Chrome to be product #1.

Topps Chrome is product #2.

Here are a few takeaways from this data…

#1: Top Tier Rookie Auto’s are ~20% more “valuable” with Bowman Chrome.

#2: Master Set’s are almost always more valuable with Topps Chrome.

#3. The overall average auto will always take a hit with Topps Chrome because of the 10-20 filler auto’s they throw into the product each year. But… on average they are very close.

#4: By looking at the volume (which I didn’t include) there is quite a bit of volume behind Topps Chrome. It’s a frustrating product but definitely has the interest of most collectors.

So… in other words, if you approach Topps Chrome strategically you’ll find that this is actually a very lucrative product and can be frustratingly rewarding if you accept it for what it is.

I digress.

Let’s discuss 2018 Topps Chrome because there is a LOT to breakdown.

I really want to love 2018 Topps Chrome.

It’s such a fun product and has so much going for it. But in reality there are a couple things to love. A few things to like. A few more to completely despise.

What I love:

• The cards are beautiful. Seriously, these look great this year. Something about the S1 base design that just pops with chrome. The insert sets look equally stunning and are awesome to have in your collection. In addition, I’m a huge fan of the various colored refractors…more so than most years. My favorites are: Pink/Negative/Blue Wave/Red. These are beautiful.
• Money players. When you start looking at the possible $$ for the top 7 players it’s pretty impressive. I’ll have a TC ladder out later next week (after data updates)… but there is a lot of great autos to protect your spend. There are 3-4 TOP TIER players who will get you at or above $100 for a base auto. Not since 2014 Draft (Jackson, Gordon, Turner, Schwarber, Verdugo, etc…) can I think about that many BASE auto’s carrying that much value.
• I can’t believe I’m saying this…but retail is hands down the best way to invest in this product. You’ll see from the way my hits broke out… it really wasn’t close. Looking at a hobby case? Go buy 3-4 Blaster Cases instead.

What I like:

• Condition. Outside of a couple of packs in one box, every card has seemingly been in great condition. No miscuts, corner issues, or smearing. Very impressed with this.
• Player Distribution w/Inserts: Topps was smart in the way players were distributed across inserts. I like that Ohtani/Torres/Acuna aren’t jammed into every insert set. Having only a couple scattered in there makes it much more valuable + interesting.

What I totally despise (hate):

• Redemptions. Wowzers, there were a lot. It was completely obvious that they didn’t expect to increase print run by 15-20% so they had to fill with a bunch of redemptions. This means that redemptions aren’t just of the top names…there are a TON of mediocre redemptions. Reduces heart palpitations when you see corner of that famous blue redemption card in the pack. L
• The # of players in the auto checklist. I get it the logic here. I really do. Topps can’t have Acuna or Torres sign 3,000 autos for this product….and if they did it would totally water down the value. But wow, 70+ names… it hurts to see so many autos of players are never going to taste stardom. If you have to increase print run I think the solution is to maybe mix in a couple of prospect autos… maybe of the extremely high-fliers. A “Topps 1^st Auto” might be a fun concept to introduce into TC.
• No KC Royals Auto. Come on guys. 😉
• HTA Cases. What a joke. There is ZERO reason for you to consider a jumbo case. Seriously I’ve yet to see a case that justifies the $$. I pulled more content out of 3 Blaster Cases and/or my hobby case than any of the two HTA cases. They stuffed the jumbo with loads of junk autos…and 3-5 colored autos. Easy pass.

On to our break….

WHAT DID WE BREAK?

We did our best to mix it up to get a complete view of which type was providing the most value. So here is what we did:

• 2x CASES of JUMBO
• 1x CASE of HOBBY
• 3x CASES of BLASTER BOXES
• 10x MONSTER BOXES (Walmart)

All-in we spent ~$5,500. We paid retail for almost all of them and got in at various times…mostly late. This is definitely not the most economical way to approach the product, but we decided on doing it later in the release schedule.

HOW DID WE DO?

Well, from a pure big time hit perspective, not good. We didn’t hit one refractor/colored auto of any of the Top 3 players (Torres, Acuna, Ohtani)… and really only one colored auto of Tier 2 players (Hoskins). Thankfully we did hit a few base autos of Torres, Acuna, Albies, and a few others….

We also didn’t hit a colored auto of any of the Top 5-6 RC’s. Not one colored refractor. We did end up hitting a RHYS HOSKINS (/99) Green Photo Variation. But that’s about it.

All of that to say, it was a pretty unimpressive break. But… the silver lining is there is a lot of value in the product. More than even I expected (w/ my normally loft expectations). I hit nearly 25 base RC’s and 2-4 refractors of every player. With this RC class…that’s where the value lies.

Our top hits are here:

ROI RESULTS

This will be updated over the course of the week… but if I had to guess… I’d say I’ll likely end up around 80-85% ROI on the $5,500. I’ve done a bit more work than usual (on this break)…because my sons and I got hooked on building various player lots. I’d say I probably put in 20 hours over the last 4 days (all-in). I rarely do pre-sales (because of time) as was the case with this release. So…this is purely breaking day after release and listing all of the core hits. We keep back all Royals + non-duplicate Kris Bryant’s.

Day 1 Sales (8/6): $413.00

Day 2 Sales (8/7): $175.00

Day 3 Sales (8/8): $627.00

Day 4 Sales (8/9): $1,050.00

I’ll update this daily through 8/15.

WANT TO SEE WHAT WE LANDED? CHECK OUT THE FULL STORE HERE.

Here are the next 7 cards ending from our break.

WHAT PRODUCT PERFORMED THE BEST?

If I’m doing this over I’d be doubling-down on RETAIL cases… specifically BLASTER CASES.

For ~$300 you’ll get the most risk-adverse way of approach 2018 TC. I averaged 3.5 autos per case + 1 color auto, 4 color non-auto, 1 photo variation, and 64 wonderful SEPIA parallels.

If you want to go the hobby route DO NOT buy JUMBO cases. My two cases and 90% of the HTA cases I’ve seen broken…. Are complete garbage. They are loaded with filler autos and will likely land you ONE Tier 1 auto and ONE tier 2 auto…. The rest is a complete crapshoot…which just isn’t worth it at $1,400-$1,500.

We did have a good showing with our Hobby Case and would consider another case at a good price (sub $900).

In summary, retail is our favorite because of the price/risk factor…but Hobby would be our 2^nd choice for the right price.

I’ll echo my thoughts from the intro. This is a really fun product, looks outstanding, and has an incredible top 10% of the checklist. But to do well with ROI you’ll need to land 1 or 2 colored refractors of a few top players. If you do this and also have the time to break down the product into the right pieces…this can be a great product.

DISCUSS IN FORUMS HERE

Here are the Top 10 most popular 2018 Topps Chrome cards right now.