Home Insights BASEBALL 2019 Bowman Baseball Pricing Ladder | 5/3/19 | Vol: 2 | Normalizing...

2019 Bowman Baseball Pricing Ladder | 5/3/19 | Vol: 2 | Normalizing the price drop… Where is the prospect value?

Welcome to Volume #2 of our 2019 Bowman Baseball Base Auto Pricing Ladder. This report breaks down all of the sales data up through May 3rd, 2019. We put these together for most major products (across all sports) as a tool to help you invest smarter and gain an edge with your hobby budget!

2019 Bowman Baseball officially released April 17th, 2019 and it hit the streets on fire. There are some BIG time names on this checklist and they are doing their best to create one of the deepest (and richest) TOP 10 we’ve seen across any product.

We now have 2 weeks of sales data to analyze, and there have already been nearly 2,600 sold BASE CHROME autos across the 76 names on the checklist.

Week 2 of ANY product typically brings a substantial normalizing. You have some of the initial hype wear off, print runs are understood, and a ton of supply hits the market. For the solid players in this product, the next 2-4 weeks are a really good time to look for bargains.

Starting this week I also try to help you see price % movement on a normalized scale. So I take the AVERAGE drop of the autos for the week (-33% this week)… and I factor that into each players price movement. This gives you a clearer picture of which players are outperforming the rest in the product. So when you look at the % price movement for each player, just know that it is relative to the overall movement in the product.

Finally at the bottom of the report I tossed in a few charts that intrigue me. I’m not necessarily recommending any particular player, just showing you what the data is potentially telling us.  Let’s dive into this.

If you are curious about last year’s Bowman Draft Ladder — Check out the 10+ releases of the 2018 Bowman Baseball Ladders

And as always, jump into the FORUMS to discuss this in-depth.


2019 Bowman Baseball Base Auto Pricing

Report for auctions ending through May 3rd, 2019

Overall Average Base Chrome Prospect Sales Price = $44.01 — (-33%)    

Volume this week: A+


The HOT 5  This week

Here are the 5 players who had the most positive ranking movement.

  • Danny Jansen (#38) | Blue Jays | Up 15 Spots | $9.50 | +36% | eBaY Autos —> HERE
  • Jose Suarez (#61) | Angels | Up 14 Spots | $4.19 | +31% | eBaY Autos —> HERE
  • Genesis Cabrera (#50) | Cardinals | Up 12 Spots | $6.07 | +21% | eBaY Autos —> HERE
  • Conner Capel (#65) | Indians | Up 11 Spots | $3.98 | +30% | eBaY Autos —> HERE
  • Corbin Burnes (#66) | Brewers | Up 11 Spots | $3.81 | +29% | eBaY Autos —> HERE

#1 – Wander Franco

Average Base Auto Sold Price  = $519.23

Sales Volume Analysis = A

Last Week Rank  = 1

Raw % Movement: +6%

Relative % Price Movement: +40%

eBay: CLICK HERE to see his AUTO’S ending now.


#2 – Vladimir Guerrero Jr

Average Base Auto Sold Price  = $345

Sales Volume Analysis = C-

Last Week Rank  = 2

Raw % Movement: -12%

Relative % Price Movement: +22%

eBay: CLICK HERE to see his AUTO’S ending now.


#3 – Joey Bart

Average Base Auto Sold Price  = $259.08

Sales Volume Analysis = C+

Last Week Rank  = 3

Raw % Movement: +2%

Relative % Price Movement: +35%

eBay: CLICK HERE to see his AUTO’S ending now.


#4: Julio Rodriguez

Average Base Auto Sold Price  = $131.59

Sales Volume Analysis = A

Last Week Rank  = 5

Raw % Movement: -2%

Relative % Price Movement: +31%

eBay: CLICK HERE to see his AUTO’S ending now.


#5: Marco Luciano

Average Base Auto Sold Price  = $125.75

Sales Volume Analysis = B+

Last Week Rank  = 4

Raw % Movement: -16%

Relative % Price Movement: +18%

eBay: CLICK HERE to see his AUTO’S ending now.


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#6 – Ronny Mauricio

Average Base Auto Sold Price  = $103.09

Sales Volume Analysis = B-

Last Week Rank  = 7

Raw % Movement: -3%

Relative % Price Movement: +30%

eBay: CLICK HERE to see his AUTO’S ending now.


#7 – Victor Victor Mesa

Average Base Auto Sold Price  = $93.35

Sales Volume Analysis = C-

Last Week Rank  = 6

Raw % Movement: -28%

Relative % Price Movement: +5%

eBay: CLICK HERE to see his AUTO’S ending now.


 

#8 – Victor Mesa Jr

Average Base Auto Sold Price  = $68.07

Sales Volume Analysis = C+

Last Week Rank  = 8

Raw % Movement: -33%

Relative % Price Movement:  FLAT

eBay: CLICK HERE to see his AUTO’S ending now.


#9: Yusei Kikuchi

Average Base Auto Sold Price  = $61.70

Sales Volume Analysis = D+

Last Week Rank  = 10

Raw % Movement: -30%

Relative % Price Movement: +3%

eBay: CLICK HERE to see his AUTO’S ending now.


#10 – Eloy Jimenez

Average Base Auto Sold Price  = $61.27

Sales Volume Analysis =  C-

Last Week Rank  = 9

Raw % Movement: -39%

Relative % Price Movement: -6%

eBay: CLICK HERE to see his AUTO’s ending now.


INTERESTING WEEKLY PRICES

Here are a few charts that might be presenting an opportunity. They stuck out to me amongst all of the data from the week.

#17 – NATE LOWE

Average Base Auto Sold Price  = $31.87

Sales Volume Analysis = A-

Raw % Movement: +14%

Relative % Price Movement: +47%

Rank Change: Up 6 Spots!

eBay: CLICK HERE to see his AUTO’S ending now.


#29 – Esteury Ruiz

Average Base Auto Sold Price  = $14.64

Sales Volume Analysis = B-

Raw % Movement: -49%

Relative % Price Movement: -16%

eBay: CLICK HERE to see his AUTO’S ending now.

 


TOP TEAMS (by Avg Auto Sales)

Looking for some help as you enter breaks? Here are the TOP TEAMS by average auto price and weighted with the QTY of players for each team.

Find 2019 Bowman Baseball Breaks >>>>> ENDING RIGHT HERE <<<<<

And now…. for a SUPER CHEAT sheet… I have put together something new in this report….


Team Pricing Chart – Breaks

This is designed to give you a complete look at which teams are over or undervalued. This is a pricing summary that takes into consideration the average team prices sales & the value of the base autos (per team). We then break it down into what the average % of value is being paid…and come up with a cost that would be the average market price.

Still analyzing this chart… will add shortly. 

I have these ranked by the teams that have the MOST VALUE at the current average break sales prices. I then have the max price I would pay for each of the teams PER PRODUCT type.

So in this report, the teams that I would take a really close look at would be:

  1. Blue Jays
  2. White Sox
  3. Giants
  4. Rays
  5. Pirates 
  6. Royals

One important note… I do not factor in the prices of any of the veteran hits. So Mike Trout would obviously skew the Angels if I factored that in…. but let’s face it, you are looking at this because of the Prospect / Rookie autos. 🙂

Hope it helps!


Overall Ranking

Here are the OVERALL pricing for all rookies.

Current Pricing for 2019 Bowman Baseball Boxes: RIGHT HERE

Criteria

We run reports on all prospects’ Bowman BASE AUTO sales for a given period. We exclude any variation, auto, insert, graded, or memorabilia prices to make sure you are getting a good representation of the actual base auto pricing. We use Base Auto prices as a baseline because they are considered by many to be the de facto standard for “base” prospect cards for MLB players. We also do our best to remove the countless MISLABELED listings for players, but there is always a chance a random auction can slightly skew the #’s. We’ll keep a close eye.

**NOTE**

Last week we added a new component to the pricing… RELATIVE % change. Instead of just giving you the raw % change week over week, we are factoring in the OVERALL price change for Average Auto prices. This is intended to give you a more realistic picture to how a player is performing against the rest of the field. This also helps remove some of general market pullback that occurs with product releases.


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Share them below or jump into the forums to discuss.

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