If you’ve listened to any of our podcasts you’ll know that Shani & I favor the NBA for many of our hobby tips/tricks/data discussions. We both have a decent amount of basketball experience and have learned many of the nuances of NBA card collecting. So…. We wanted to take our insight to the next level this season and give you a deeper level of information as we approach the season.
As with most sports it usually begins and ends with the rookie class. If the rookie class is solid then you can expect a constant increase in wax prices and a general momentum throughout the season. If the class is weaker, interest will shift to 2nd – 3rd year players and overall excitement will be a bit lower. This is the nature of our hobby and will likely never change.
But that’s okay! Either way we got you covered. We have LOADS of data and insights to help provide you the upper hand in your collecting. Starting with….. you guessed it….. the rookies!
If you are a podcast lover or if you want to listen to this report with some deeper thoughts and “insight”, check out our NBA Tip-Off Episode RIGHT HERE. But if you like to visualize statistics and see our prognostications in writing, this article is for you.
We are going to provide you our expectations for the 2018/19 NBA Rookie Class both with overall talent and silver prices. This year will require a bit more strategy than past years because I believe it’s one of the deepest draft classes in the past 15 years. In fact, I’ve gone on record to say I think this class goes down as the ‘best draft class this decade!’
What makes this draft so special is that it’s full of a group of 10-20 players who have All-Star potential and nearly half of them are playing in top markets. In addition, there are 2-5 players who have the talent / pedigree to command TOP dollar… so excitement is running high on our end! 😉
Before we dig into this class, be sure to check out our 2017/18 Panini Prizm Rookie Pricing Ladder for more insight into how last year’s pricing has worked out. Visualizing the pricing of prizm’s over the last year is very indicative of the ebbs + flows of the hobby/season. Buying early to “invest” is a very scary proposition… you’ll have to avoid landmines to NOT lose substantial $$. We’ll do our best to give our advice but absolutely dig into the past Prizm ladders.
Our breakdown of the 2018/19 NBA Rookie Class:
Tier 1
These are the guys we see as elite and have Silver prices opening north of $200. In 2017 there was 3 of these guys (Tatum, Mitchell, Kuzma).
Luka Doncic
Estimated Silver on Release: $300
Range through January: $175-$325
Generational talent with ability to be the face of a franchise. Will have the highest ceiling in Year 1 with combination of skills and international popularity.
DeAndre Ayton
Estimated Silver on Release: $265
Range through January: $195-$265
Likely the best true big man we’ve seen since Anthony Davis and has an insane amount of momentum heading into season. Very limited downside this season.
Trae Young
Estimated Silver on Release: $235
Range through Jan: $140-$235
He’s going to carry a huge price tag because of his comparisons to Steph. Unfortunately it might take a Steph like season to maintain his high prices.
Jaren Jackson Jr
Estimated Silver on Release: $210
Range through Jan: $165 – $220
He might be the hottest rookie heading into the season. Has all the goods to contend for Rookie of the Year…and might surprise us with a 20/12/5 stat line by the end of the season.
Marvin Bagley III
Estimated Silver on Release: $200
Range through Jan: $140-$225
If we wasn’t in Sacramento he’d easily contend for Top 2 or 3. We’ll know pretty quickly if he is going to adjust quick enough this season…but easy to see a 15/10/3 guy.
Tier 2
These are the guys we see as firmly above $100 but not sniffing $200 at release. The top guys might have a shot at Tier 1 by the end of the season, but will need to sustain months of good performances.
Kevin Knox
Estimated Silver on Release: $190
Range Through Jan: $135-$210
New York will keep his floor much higher than others… he’s going to get plenty of opportunities this season. Have high expectations for Knox.
Wendell Carter Jr.
Estimated Silver on Release: $175
Range through Jan: $100 – $185
He’s in Chicago so it’ll help keep him fresh on people’s mind… but even that market has been a bit shaky for hobby love. Watch him close near the beginning of November after he adjusts to the league.
Mohamed Bamba
Estimated Silver on Release: $150
Range through Jan: $85-$165
Bamba will a very unique case to watch. He’s not an elite scorer (yet)…so his value will be limited…but his presence alters the game. There will likely be some stretches where Bamba is carrying a lot of buzz. This will give you plenty of time to invest and flip.
Collin Sexton
Estimated Silver on Release: $140
Range through Jan: $90-$170
Another situation where scoring where be the issue. Sexton is a game changer with his athleticism and instincts. But, he is used to getting points at the rim….which won’t be as easy in the League. I think he’ll find his way and emerge as the top 2 or 3 guard in the draft, but it will come at cost….lots of volatility with his prices.
Michael Porter Jr
Estimated Silver on Release: $100
Range through Jan: $60-$150
This will be fun to watch. If MPj gets on the court in the early weeks of the season, then he will likely see a nice bump in his prices. If there are delays w/injuries then you’ll need to be very careful. Massive talent with potential to move into Top 5.
Sleeper Tier 2 Picks
These are guys that we believe can be $100+ but need a solid first month.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Estimated Silver on Release: $75
Range through Jan: $50-$110
Miles Bridges
Estimated Silver on Release: $65
Range through Jan: $40 – $100
Mikal Bridges
Estimated Silver on Release: $55
Range through Jan: $40-$100
Deep Investment Sleepers
These are the 6 guys that aren’t in the Top 15 picks that we believe provide a ton of investment value.
Landry Shamet
Estimated Silver on Release: $30
Range through Jan: $20 – $60
Lonnie Walker iV
Estimated Silver on Release: $25
Range through Jan: $15-$75
Moritz Wagner
Estimated Silver on Release: $15
Range though Jan: $15-$50
Grayson Allen
Estimated Silver on Release: $20
Range through Jan: $10-$50
Troy Brown Jr
Estimated Silver on Release: $15
Range though Jan: $10-$50
Alonzo Trier.
(Last-minute Add)
Estimated Silver on Release: $15
Range through Jan: $10-$45
There are going to be some great opportunities to invest in high-upside players with this years class. Guys drafted deep in 1st rd and early 2nd rd can make waves this season. Keep an eye on our ladders and see how guys move throughout the season.
OUR FINAL OVERALL RANKINGS
Be sure to leave your comments below!
