2018 Topps Update Baseball | Part 2

Welcome back to our series here at Breaker Culture around turning a 20% profit on 2018 Topps Update Series.  In our original post, I explained our target sales expectations with one hobby case and then three observations and strategies on how to maximize your return on this product.  But as they say, talk is cheap and it is time to really drill down into the numbers and show exactly where I stand on this release as I am about to enter into what I call “Round 2” on 2018 Update Series.

Before we get to Round 2, let’s dig a little deeper into Round 1.  The first go around with this release saw us open six hobby and one jumbo case.  I should have taken my own advice and picked up one extra hobby case instead of a jumbo but that is a mute-point now.  The one jumbo case was my weakest case to date even though it included a Juan Soto Rookie Debut /50 Mother’s Day Pink parallel.  Hobby is the way to go with any flagship product due to the inclusion of the /25 Red Auto’s and /10 Clear parallels, which are just stunning in person. At the end of the day though, don’t let the results justify your actions.

As I stated above, we are about to start Round 2 and here is where we currently stand before we even open our cases in the next round.

As it currently stands, after all fees are removed, I am currently (5.7%) or ($274.34).  “But Chris, that isn’t a 20% return!” ……and you are absolutely correct.  Let’s take a closer look and see why I am still very confident in the fact that I will return at least 20% on my initial investment.

Breakdown

• Remaining Cards: 9,988.
  • The best news here is that I have returned 94.3% of my investment after fees and still have 34% of my cards still available for sale.
• Remaining Breakdown of Cards:
  • Low End Target Revenue: ~$1,750 after fees
  • (insert table 1 here, attached to email)
    • I am still sitting on 20 complete base sets & 2 master sets.
    • I have adjusted down a few items, especially the Blue & Black parallels as they are probably the hardest to move individually and I still have a majority of what I pulled after six weeks.
    • Outside of a few tops RC sales, I have pretty much just held onto the /2018 Gold parallels and Rainbow parallels. I am attempting to put together a complete set, so that is a risk holding onto them, but I am still confident I will average $1 per card when they are all gone.
    • I am also sitting on 6 SSP Rookie Card Variations which were not originally included in my original table as I see those as an added bonus to each break and the prices vary widely based on the rookie. I have sales that range from $20 to +$120 on these SSP RC’s.
  • Target Sales Goal:
    • Already banked: $4,540
    • Projected Remaining Revenue: $1,750 (after fees)
    • Target Total Sales: $6,290
    • Return on Investment Current Target: +30.6%.
      • As it currently stands, when you factor in expected down turns, some cards not selling, I feel very confident I will exceed my initial goal of +20%!
        • I am still sitting on low numbered RC’s on the top rookies that will sell for over the target price for that parallel which will generate a higher than expected return, potentially guaranteeing my return over 30%.
      • Absolute worst-case scenario though, I sell just the remaining base and master sets, nothing else, and that puts me at +9%.

ROUND 2 PLAN of ATTACK

Now let’s take a quick look into our Round 2 plan.

• Objective: We are now opening product six to seven weeks after release and missing the early release window for sales, so we need to look for deals on cases.  If you are about to pay more for case a month after launch, please don’t do it.  That is nearly always a guaranteed loss and as we talked about initially, going into this expecting to hit a “monster” to pay for the case, is the wrong mentality.  To substantially lower my cost this time around, I have purchased my cases through three different avenues.
  • DealerNet (I recommend you join this site!)
  • eBay (Utilizing 10% coupons / not eBay bucks promo)
  • Black Friday Sales and or Upcoming Holiday Sales
• Purchase total for six hobby cases was $3,308
  • The one downside to purchasing cases weeks after launch is they don’t typically come with the free silver packs. I was fortunate to locate two cases with them but with the savings of rover $700 on the hobby cases, I am not losing any value by purchasing cases without the silver packs.
  • Hidden Fact: Six hobby cases will deliver at least:
    • 76 Base Sets
    • 6 Master Sets
      • Total Revenue: ~$2500 after fees on just the sets which is a 75% return before we even know what our “hits” are in the case.
    • Disclaimer: Nothing ever is guaranteed to sell and while there are odds out there, I could essentially open six cases with nothing but worthless miss-cut base cards.  Please do not spend money on boxes/cases hoping to turn an easy profit.  This methodology has been tried and tested over many years of trial and error.

I have lost money on cases this year and that will happen to everyone.  The goal is to minimize your loses and then exploit the products that present extreme value to you.

This is strictly hobby money for me and if I lose it all, my normal day to day life will not be affected.  I am just trying to share what I know and have learned and if it can just help one person, as they say, then I will say this is successful!

In the coming weeks, we will dive further into Round 2 results of 2018 Topps Update, a review of the entire year from my perspective on how Topps has made changes to their products, 2018 Bowman Draft and potentially providing tools on how to track your sales, if you are so inclined to take your sales to that level of detail.  Thanks again for taking a part of your day to read this and please do not hesitate to reach out to me on Twitter @CRT_Sportscards. I am always up for a good discussion around baseball cards and numbers!  -Chris

DISCUSS IN THE FORUM! 

AUTHOR INFO:

My name is Chris Torres and I am personal case breaker based out of Seattle, WA.  For some context on our volume and experience, I have been a Top Rated Seller on eBay for the past three years and in 2018, we have opened nearly 60 Topps baseball cases.  You can usually find me on Twitter breaking down the newest releases from an odds perspective as numbers are my specialty.